Betting Over And Under

[ACE-ACE]

To gamble on football.... it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur than other scores...... Would you believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!

It's true! When predicting final football scores..... you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31

These numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly.

In other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration

 

[EasyMoney]

to break that down a little futher. There are also certain margins of victory that should be considered when predicting a score. For example, a 3 point margin of victory happens about 14 to 15 percent of the time. 7 points, about 7 to 8 percent, 4 about 7%,6, 1 14 and 10 are all about 5 to 6%.

So bacically half of all NFL games will end with a margin of victory of 3, 7, 4, 6, 1, 14 or 10 points

 

[EasyMoney]

there is also key numbers for totals. bascially 33% of all NFL games will end with a total of 30, 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, or 51 points.

So if your prediction for the game is a total of 42 points and the posted total is 31 than your not only 11 points away from the total but, 4 key numbers away from the posted total.

 

[NoLimits]

who the fuck cares!

 

[EasyMoney]

Hey ass bag,

this site is about sharing info and helping others. the fact is that any real sports bettor will tell you that key numbers play a big role in wins and losses. as does money management. Ace is one of the most respected guys here when it comes to the NFL and I do allright as well. So if you dont know what your talking about than just shut up.

 

[jonog]

Great work Ace and Easy Money.
As for you No Limits....

 

[twjd]

What an ass! Must be a kid!

 

[tatehill2000]

this is a good thread,,, thank you ACE,,, and Easy,,,

tater

 

[redpimp]

Actually this information is pretty much useless. This guy is using statistics that are way too broad to even be considered for 1 NFL season. I would willing to wager that if we calculated just the scores of the NFL for just last year, or even 1 month out of the season last year, or even 1 week, you would get results that differ by such a wide margin it would render these statistics totally useless to a handicapper.

You can not gather statistics from 10 years ago and group them together then hope that when you pick one game out of the thousands of games that are factored into those stats he posted, that you could even remotely come up with a mathematically correct result..You wont even come close. Especially in todays NFL...

Simply put, all that posted information is totally irrelevant!

 

[redpimp]

To gamble on football.... it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur than other scores...... Would you believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!

It's true! When predicting final football scores..... you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31

These numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly.

In other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration

Also this is not rocket science. There is a simple explanation for the sequence of numbers you have posted. And it has to do with the fact that all those numbers posted are a direct result of the way scores are tabulated in the NFL.. Ie field goals account for 3 points while touchdowns with extra point account for 7 points...

You example posted about a 30-26 score being off and that 28-27 for example is more accurate is kind of deceptive!!!!! 28-10 is just as likely to be correct. thats a whopping 17 point difference in total points scored in a game!

 

[drB]

Chill guys

I think many of us are really looking forward to football season
but we shouldn't pick on each other. This site has tons of excellent information
and no room for "who the fuck cares."
In a few weeks we'll all be caring about picking winners-
and that's why we love to bet.

arty:

 

[EasyMoney]

redpimp,

I agree with you 100% that how football is scored directly relates to why the scores are what they are. All I'm trying to do is maybe help out the new gamblers out there that need to realize that there are certain key numbers when it comes to betting on football. A point spread of 7.5 to 9.5 is basically not much of a differance because there is less than a 4% chance that the game will end with exactly an 8 or 9 point game. However a pointspread of 2.5 to 3.5 even though its only 1 point insted of 2 is a much bigger differance because about 15% of all games will end with a 3 point margin of victory.

 

[EasyMoney]

All I'm trying to do is help out the guy that maybe doesn't know that much about betting the NFL. I see we have about 1000 registered users here at the RX as well as 1000's more that just come here to read post. I'm sure alot of those are newbiees to the gambling game, and every bit of information helps when your new to the game.

for example, it would surprise alot of people to know that most times the most important injury a team can have is an injury not to the QB, but the center. If the starting center is out generally the team has a much worse shot to cover the spread than if the QB is out.

 

[redpimp]

redpimp,

I agree with you 100% that how football is scored directly relates to why the scores are what they are. All I'm trying to do is maybe help out the new gamblers out there that need to realize that there are certain key numbers when it comes to betting on football. A point spread of 7.5 to 9.5 is basically not much of a differance because there is less than a 4% chance that the game will end with exactly an 8 or 9 point game. However a pointspread of 2.5 to 3.5 even though its only 1 point insted of 2 is a much bigger differance because about 15% of all games will end with a 3 point margin of victory.

My point was, with the particular stats you posted, one needs a very wide range of games (in the thousands) to acquire such results. You can not use such a large sample to try and figure out the possible out come 221 regular season games let alone the 13 games played in a week. Especially when considering an event as volatile as NFL. You would have to compile statistics using a much smaller sample say about 400 to 500 (thats about 2 seasons) games which would take into account the future games you are predicting will have a closer resemblense to the samples used..(ie rules, players, coaches etc..) And even then, you still would not have such an accurate sample. This is in regards to you most other stats you posted but not the issue of the 3 pt differential...

Incidentally about that stat that about 15% if the games are decided by 3 points you would have to follow that up with a stat about how the teams with such a spread fair...IE, how often to the dogs cover vs the favs? Otherwise you are still not helping out any one.

Not to mention, that it does not necessarily follow that of those 15% games that are decided by 3, the point spread was also originally in the range of 2.5 to 3.5. I would guess that the number of games where the spread actually is in that range and the final score also manages to fall at 3 is such a small percentage that renders it useless to handicap games going on that stat as the core of your pick.

 

[redpimp]

ps..I was mostly referring to the issue as far as overs and unders go not the sides

 

[SqueezePlay]

A point spread of 7.5 to 9.5 is basically not much of a differance because there is less than a 4% chance that the game will end with exactly an 8 or 9 point game. However a pointspread of 2.5 to 3.5 even though its only 1 point insted of 2 is a much bigger differance because about 15% of all games will end with a 3 point margin of victory.

Easy, you make a very solid point here. Books know all about key numbers in each sport. In basketball, 7 is a key number because it represents 3 possessions. In the NFL, 3 is certainly a key number. Books are very reluctant to make many moves when the spread is around -3. They know they may well get middled if they move from -2.5 to -3.5 or vice versa. So you see a lot of messing around with odds. +3 at -120, that sort of thing. A one point move from -2.5 to -3.5 is MUCH more significant than a move from -15 to -17, for example. Not all points are created equal.

It can never hurt a player to be reminded of the key numbers in play. THANKS!

 

[Thomas]

ACE ACE nice informative post, there is no bad info in our bussiness only detractor's. I've always found if you have nothing good to say shut up so I can't understand this bs that goes on. I read your stuff quite often and find your thoughts stimulating and relevant and I invite you to come over to where cruisin posts to exchange your ideas.

 

[MathProf]

I can contribute the following:

In the last 15+ years of NFL play, it has been mildly profitable
to take a -3 and +3.5 or -2.5 and +3 spread on the same game and lay -110.

With sportsbook competition now driving the vig down to
-105, it is definitely profitableto make these plays.

Also, at -105, a 1/2 point middle around 7 (-6.5 and +7 or -7 and +7.5)
is mildly profitable.

If you try to middle totals, the only profitable spread is on/off 37.
This number is by far the most frequent total of an NFL game (and
surprisingly, 51 is second).

Hope this helps

 

[SqueezePlay]

Hope this helps

Prof, it helps a great deal. Frankly, I have never considered the middle in NFL totals. Key numbers are "sticky" in my mind. Be it pointspreads or totals, certain numbers are begrudingly moved away from by the books because of the tendency of games to land exactly on those numbers.

Something that people forget about middles is that our perception of middles as players is different than the perception of the books. We think of taking NE -6.5 AND Philly +7, for example. Two tickets. The books don't care who places the bets. If they get a high volume on NE -6.5 and a high volume on Philly +7, they are in jeopardy, even though very few players actually have BOTH tickets.